Opinion/What does 2017 tell us about 2019?

Opinion/What does 2017 tell us about 2019?
This article has been written for Albanian Free Press newspaper and www.albanianfreepress.al

Public opinion in Albania may well be focused on the political year 2019 following the extraordinary events taken place in 2018.  However, mayors and candidates who are dreaming of being elected have already started to make plans.

The results of the 2017 parliamentary elections serve as a very good basis to make an analysis of the chances that candidates have to win in the 2019 elections. For instance, in the 2015 elections, majority candidates won almost every municipality where this majority had won in the previous parliamentary elections, with the exception of Pogradec, Lezha, Mallakastra and Permet. In the first three cases, candidates proposed by SMI did not receive adequate support by local SP branches, while the socialist candidate in Permet didn’t seem to enjoy much sympathy among socialists of this town.

In the local government elections which will take place in five months, the Socialist Party will not have that big of a coalition that it had in 2015, however, besides the votes of its supporters, it’s also expected to receive the votes of those who voted for MPs Tom Doshi, Reme lala, Aqif Rakipi and Bujar Muça, who had declared before the elections that they would support PM Rama.

On the other hand, it looks like the Democratic Party, the Socialist Movement for Integration and other opposition parties will come up with joint candidates in order to reduce the numerical advantage that the SP candidates will have at the start of the race.

Assuming that this will be the configuration of the electoral battle in five months time, the 2017 electoral results show that socialist candidates will have a numerical advantage against a possible coalition between DP, SMI and other opposition parties. In these 35 municipalities, the Socialist Party and the MPs that offered their support for this party have received more than 50% of the votes, achieving a record percentage in Librazhd with 73% (see table 1).

In 7 other municipalities, the Socialist Party and the MPs that backed this party, were close to the 50%  figure (47.77%-49.79%). As a result, in these municipalities we will expect a very tough race (see table 2).

Meanwhile, in 19 municipalities, the SP and those MPs that offered their support for this party, received less than 46% of votes (see table 3). In case opposition parties decide to join forces, then their candidates have a good chance to win in those 19 municipalities.

Table 1.   Municipalities where the SP won more than 50% of the votes in 2017

 

RankingMunicipality%  Votes
1Librazhd*73,18%
2Pukë*69,12%
3Peqin*66,42%
4Poliçan66,26%
5Fushë-Arrëz*65,44%
6Divjakë64,31%
7Selenicë64,29%
8Vlorë64,23%
9Belsh*63,18%
10Tepelenë62,43%
11Gramsh*61,59%
12Elbasan*61,29%
13Himarë60,91%
14Roskovec60,32%
15Memaliaj60,12%
16Dibër*60,04%
17Lushnjë59,37%
18Prrenjas*57,88%
19Patos57,32%
20Ura Vajgurore56,94%
21Sarandë56,21%
22Malsi e Madhe*56,04%
23Shijak55,48%
24Kuçovë54,99%
25Maliq54,85%
26Pogradec54,85%
27Berat54,74%
28Fier54,62%
29Konispol53,65%
30Këlcyrë53,25%
31Libohovë52,16%
32Korçë52,10%
33Përmet51,75%
34Tiranë51,42%
35Krujë50,83%

 *In the municipalities of the districts of Shkoder, Elbasan and Dibra, the SP has increased the number of its votes only with the votes received by MPs Tom Doshi, Reme Lala, Aqif Rakipi and Bujar Muça, who have declared their support for the PM

Table 2. Percentage of SP’s votes in the municipalities where it came close to 50% on June 25

RankingMunicipality%  Votes
1Kolonjë49,79%
2Kukës49,72%
3Mat*49,67%
4Mallakastër49,23%
5Durrës48,41%
6Gjirokastër47,85%
7Cërrik*47,77%

* In the municipalities of the districts of Shkoder, Elbasan and Dibra, the SP has increased the number of its votes only with the votes received by MPs Tom Doshi, Reme Lala, Aqif Rakipi and Bujar Muça, who have declared their support for the PM

Table 3. Percentage of SP’s votes in the municipalities where it obtained less than 46% on June 25

RankingMunicipality%  Votes
1Delvinë45,94%
2Mirditë45,75%
3Klos*44.86%
4Finiq44,56%
5Vau-Dejës*44,15%
6Shkodër*42,85%
7Rrogozhinë42,82%
8Kavajë42,66%
9Has41,87%
10Lezhë41,23%
11Bulqizë*40,21%
12Kurbin39,57%
13Skrapar37,59%
14Pustec37,03%
15Kamëz35,07%
16Devoll33,23%
17Vorë33,16%
18Tropojë32,06%
19Dropull27,08%

*In the municipalities of the districts of Shkoder, Elbasan and Dibra, the SP has increased the number of its votes only with the votes received by MPs Tom Doshi, Reme Lala, Aqif Rakipi and Bujar Muça, who have declared their support for the PM

 

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